This is the last week of a truly shitty Atlantic hurricane season. It was record-breaking. People are still recovering. Misinformation managed to make things even worse. Now, we get a six-month-ish break before it starts over again — perhaps with fewer federal resources to respond in the US.
At the very least, we knew what was coming this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast an “above normal” season before it started in June. The agency published a recap yesterday with some data on how it all played out; the TLDR: these are some big numbers.
There’s also some subtext in there. It took a huge coordinated effort within the agency to put out forecasts and communicate risks to the public. Any efforts to gut the agency during the Trump administration could make that critical work much harder to do.
Efforts to gut the agency during the Trump administration could make that critical work much harder
“As hurricanes and tropical cyclones continue to unleash deadly and destructive forces, it’s clear that NOAA’s critical science and services are needed more than ever by communities, decision makers and emergency planners,” NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said yesterday.
First, let’s recap. Hurricane Beryl broke a record for forming earlier in the Atlantic season than any other Category 5 storm. It tore through Texas in July, knocking out power for millions of people and triggering a second disaster as residents sweltered through a dangerous heatwave without air conditioning.
Hurricane Helene, a Category 4 storm, was likely the deadliest hurricane to hit the continental US since Katrina in 2005, according to preliminary data from NOAA. Some towns in North Carolina still don’t have drinkable water, two months after the storm ripped a devastating path across the Southeast, Grist and public radio station BPR report.
Hurricane Milton slammed into Florida a couple of weeks later, after intensifying faster than nearly any other storm on record. Its wind speed increased by 90 miles per hour within a day, according to NOAA.
And those are only a few of the big names. No less than 18 storms grew strong enough to earn a name this season. The average is only 14. Eleven of those storms became hurricanes, compared to seven on average. Five storms strengthened into major hurricanes, a Category 3 or higher. A typical season only has three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic season typically peaks in early September. But seven hurricanes formed after September 25th, a record number for the tail end of the season. After all, it’s hard to say what’s “typical” anymore with climate change.
Hurricanes gather strength from heat energy. As greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels trap heat on our planet, higher sea surface temperatures fuel stronger tropical storms. Heat also helps storms rapidly intensify, which can catch a community off guard unless they have reliable forecasts to help them prepare.
NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft flew 392 hours and passed through the eye of a hurricane 80 times over the season to gather data needed to issue forecasts and better understand how hurricanes are changing. NOAA houses the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center that public officials and media often rely on to share forecasts with the public. The agency also conducts a lot of climate research that helps planners keep their communities safe, including data that informs federal flood maps.
Project 2025, the right-wing planning document for a second Trump administration, says NOAA “should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories.” Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s vision for President-elect Donald Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) calls for “mass head-count reductions” across federal agencies.
NOAA staff, understandably, are “very nervous and scared for what’s coming,” a former senior NOAA official told Politico’s E&E News this month.
We already saw a glimpse this year of how attacks against federal agencies might affect disaster response. Misinformation about FEMA spurred a wave of threats against its staff on social media. Not only does that make FEMA’s work more complicated but it can also risk dissuading people from getting help from the agency.
Regardless of turmoil within NOAA, if it still exists next year, storms will keep brewing in the Atlantic once hurricane season kicks off again. For now, at least, the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect any tropical cyclone activity for the next 48 hours. The season comes to a close on November 30th.
